THE GREAT AI CREATIVE CONSOLIDATION: WHO SURVICES WHEN TEAMS CAN ONLY ACCEPT ONE WINNER?
- candyandgrim
- Dec 4, 2025
- 14 min read
Updated: Dec 5, 2025
Note: I'm on the Adobe Project Graph beta waitlist (announced November 25, 2025). This analysis examines what makes Project Graph potentially game-changing, and the ONE feature that could make it unstoppable: offline generation using studio hardware. After analyzing 15+ platforms and running a multi-disciplinary creative studio, here's what I hope Adobe gets right.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Part 1: The Crisis (5 min read)
Breaking: The consolidation has already started
Why creative teams can't adopt every platform
Part 2: The Framework (8 min read) 3. The Layer 1/2/3 problem: Why most platforms will fail 4. Current state: Who's actually pulling ahead?
Part 3: Market Dynamics (10 min read) 5. The AI bubble reality: Why consolidation is inevitable 6. Canva's Nintendo strategy: The dark horse became frontrunner
Part 4: Adobe's Response (12 min read) 7. Adobe Project Graph: The enterprise counter-strike 8. The universal economics: Why offline generation matters 9. Compliance nodes: The feature nobody's building
Part 5: Action Plan (5 min read) 10. What this means for creative teams right now
GLOSSARY
Layer 1: AI generation engines using node-editor boards or other complex processes to get results. In some instances this is a text prompt without any hands on editing tools. Think of this as the dev layer
Layer 2: Workflow integration (brand guidelines, collaboration, approvals), built on top of layer 1, think if this as the creative layer
Layer 3: Business logic (budget tracking, billing, ROI). Examples: Built on top of layer 2, aimed more at in-house creative tools that collaborate with sales and marketing teams. None exist yet
Node-based workflow: Visual programming where tools connect like complex flowcharts.
Offline generation: Running AI models on your own hardware (Mac/PC) instead of cloud servers. No credits, no internet required, reduced carbon footprint.
IP indemnification: Legal protection if AI-generated content causes copyright lawsuit. Critical for client work
CMYK/Pantone: Professional colour systems for print work. Most AI platforms are digital-only (RGB)
Capsules: Adobe Project Graph's term for packaged workflows - unclear if they're reusable components or standalone apps
CHAPTER 1: BREAKING - THE CONSOLIDATION HAS ALREADY STARTED
October 30, 2025 - The same day Canva relaunched Affinity as free software, Figma acquired Weavy for an estimated $200M+.
Weavy was founded in 2024. Just one year old. Already had paying customers (Google, Nvidia, Toyota, Dyson). Raised only $4M in seed funding.
Why it matters: This is the fastest major acquisition in AI creative tool history. It proves three things:
The consolidation is happening NOW - not 2026, not 2027
Even successful platforms can't stay independent - Weavy had traction but took the exit
Enterprise platforms are buying their way in - Figma couldn't build fast enough
Weavy is now "Figma Weave" - the node-based workflow system that inspired the October 2025 copycat explosion (Runway, Adobe, Freepik, Krea all launched nodes the same month).
This is what the bubble burst looks like: Fast exits. Panic acquisitions. Rapid consolidation.
CHAPTER 2: WHY CREATIVE TEAMS CAN'T ADOPT EVERY PLATFORM
Most creative studios are multi-disciplinary. We do video, photo, vector graphics for print AND digital, 3D, motion graphics, copywriting, UI/UX. We're not specialized boutiques—we're full-service operations expected to deliver everything.
There are currently 30+ AI platforms vying for our attention. Each promises to revolutionize workflows. Most deliver powerful Layer 1 generation while completely ignoring how creative teams actually work.
Here's the uncomfortable truth: We can only afford 2-3 winners. Maybe just one.
1. Budget reality: CFO sign-off is a brick wall
Getting budget approval for ONE platform requires:
CFO approval (ROI justification)
IT approval (security review)
InfoSec approval (data handling)
Legal approval (IP indemnification)
Multiply that by 10 platforms? Not happening. At $10-75/month each, even modest tooling exceeds $1,000/month before enterprise tiers.
2. Learning fatigue: Every platform is someone's full-time job
Each platform requires 4-20 hours onboarding. For a team of 5, that's 100+ hours of non-billable time per year. The complaint I hear most: "I'm exhausted constantly learning new platforms."
3. The integration nightmare
Our workflows span Adobe CC, Figma, Cinema 4D, project management (Asana/Monday), client communication (Slack/Teams), file storage (Dropbox/Drive), review tools (Frame.io/Ziflow).
Add 5-10 AI platforms that don't talk to each other? Files fragment. Version control breaks. Brand assets scatter. Approvals become nightmares.
4. The print problem nobody mentions
A large proportion of creative work still goes to print:
Brochures need CMYK color space
Logos require Pantone specifications
Packaging needs bleed and crop marks
Publications demand print-ready PDFs
Almost every AI platform is digital-only. This alone keeps studios locked to Adobe.
5. Ethical and legal risks
Legal teams are blocking AI adoption because:
Training data sources unclear (alleged YouTube scraping?)
IP indemnification missing (who's liable if client gets sued?)
Commercial use terms ambiguous
Data retention policies opaque
Many of my clients insist on non-AI-generated content. Not because they're dinosaurs, but because they're professional. Recent Runway controversies prove this is due diligence, not paranoia.
CHAPTER 3: THE LAYER 1/2/3 PROBLEM - WHY MOST PLATFORMS WILL FAIL
After analyzing 15+ platforms, one pattern emerges: almost everyone is building Layer 1 tools when creative teams need Layer 2 solutions.
Layer 1: Developer tools (what everyone's building)
Powerful AI generation engines
Text-to-image, image-to-video, etc.
Technically impressive
Zero understanding of creative workflows
Examples: ComfyUI, Runway, Midjourney, Krea, Google Mixboard, Recraft
Layer 2: Workflow integration (what teams actually need)
Brand guidelines enforcement
Campaign asset management
Team collaboration tools
Client approval workflows
Version control
Performance analytics
Tool integration (Adobe, Figma, PM tools)
Examples: Pletor, Luvian.AI, Miro AI, Canva + Affinity
Layer 3: Business logic (what nobody's building)
Budget tracking per asset
Client billing integration
Time tracking vs output
ROI measurement
Resource allocation
Examples: None. This layer is completely ignored.
The brutal reality: Teams adopting Layer 1 tools end up with 5-10 fragmented generation platforms and still manually manage workflows, brand consistency, and approvals.
This doesn't scale. This is why most AI platform subscribers are individuals and enthusiasts, not entire agencies or in-house teams.
CHAPTER 4: CURRENT STATE - WHO'S ACTUALLY PULLING AHEAD?
Based on comprehensive analysis across 39 criteria, here's where things stand. This ranking changes weekly:
Tier 1: True Layer 2 attempts
MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH (October 30, 2025): The dark horse became frontrunner.
What changed:
Free Affinity Suite: Photo + Designer + Publisher = $0
Own AI design model: Generates editable layers (not flat images)
Enhanced whiteboards: AI-powered workflow canvas
Visual Suite 2.0: Whiteboard → doc → presentation → video in ONE design
Canva Grow: Marketing analytics + direct Meta ad publishing
MagicBrief: Ad performance tracking integrated
The complete creative operating system:
Ideation: AI whiteboards
Generation: Own AI model (editable layers)
Production: Affinity tools (FREE)
Collaboration: Visual Suite 2.0
Distribution: Canva Grow
Measurement: MagicBrief
200M+ users. Free professional tools. From brainstorm to published ad to analytics - one platform, mostly free.
2. Pletor (9.0/10) - Marketing workflow platform, agent-based generation, brand training built-in
3. Luvian.AI (8.5/10) - Unified creative suite (text/image/video/audio), multi-model orchestration
4. Miro AI (8.3/10) - Collaboration infrastructure + AI, 80M+ users, proven platform
Tier 2: Best Layer 1 specialists
5. ComfyUI (8.2/10) - Ultimate power, offline, open-source (but terrible onboarding)
6. Adobe Firefly (7.5/10) - Enterprise integration, IP indemnification, print workflows
7. Recraft V3 (7.7/10) - Best brand consistency
8. Runway Gen-4 (7.8/10) - Industry-leading video (if ethics addressed)
9. Flora AI (8.0/10) - Node-based unification of 40+ models
Struggling platforms
Krea AI (7.3/10) - Real-time drawing, but no collaboration/brand system
Google Mixboard (7.0/10) - Free, but no Google Workspace integration (!), likely dead by 2026
Figma AI + Weave (7.5/10) - Just acquired Weavy for $200M+, strong contender now but we are yet to see what will come out of this fusion
CHAPTER 5: THE AI BUBBLE REALITY - WHY CONSOLIDATION IS INEVITABLE
Here's the uncomfortable financial truth: the AI bubble will burst, and it will devastate people financially.
Not because AI is a fad. But because unsustainable business models always collapse.
The math doesn't work
OpenAI: Loses $2.25 for every $1 earned. $13.5B loss in H1 2025.
Stability AI: CEO resigned March 2024, company in chaos.
Most AI platforms: Burning $5-50M/year on compute costs. 90% will be dead by 2028.
History repeats
3D software (1990s-2000s):
Started: 3DS Max, Maya, Softimage, LightWave, Modo, Truespace, Electric Image
Survived: 3DS Max, Maya, Blender, Cinema 4D
Dead: Everything else
E-commerce (dot-com 2000-2002):
Lost: Pets.com, Webvan, Kozmo, eToys
Kept: Amazon, eBay, Google
Markets consolidate to 2-4 dominant players. The rest die or get acquired for pennies.
Node-based workflows: Case study in bubble thinking
Timeline:
January 2023: ComfyUI launches (pioneer)
Mid-2024: Weavy launches (UX breakthrough)
October 30, 2025: WEAVY ACQUIRED $200M+ (after just 1 year!)
October 2025: Everyone copies (Runway, Adobe, Freepik, Krea)
Classic bubble: Prove model → fast acquisition → twenty copycats → saturation → consolidation.
Who gets devastated
Early employees at VC-backed startups (worthless stock options)
Specialized AI tool freelancers (expertise in dead platforms)
Late-stage investors (inflated valuations)
Small studios that over-invested (trained on discontinued tools)
Why the burst is necessary
Forces real innovation (not growth at any cost)
Kills mediocre middle (decision paralysis ends)
Reveals who's building vs bullshitting (real IP vs wrapped models)
Clears cognitive load (less tool-shopping, more creating)
CHAPTER 6: CANVA'S NINTENDO STRATEGY - THE DARK HORSE BECAME FRONTRUNNER
The October 30, 2025 Affinity relaunch deserves attention. This isn't just a product launch.
The Nintendo vs Sega lesson
Remember 1990s handheld console wars?
Sega Game Gear:
Full color screen ✓
Better graphics ✓
Superior technology ✓
Dead
Nintendo Game Boy:
Monochrome screen (worse)
Basic graphics (worse)
Simple games (Tetris)
Better battery life ✓
Understood market ✓
Won and has become iconic
History repeats: Betamax vs VHS. HD DVD vs Blu-ray. Mini-Disc vs Mp3. Best technology rarely wins. Best go-to-market wins.
What everyone else does (Sega approach)
"Our AI generates 10% better images!" "Most advanced features!" "Cutting-edge technology!"
Fighting on specifications.
What Canva does (Nintendo approach)
"200M users already here" "Professional tools now FREE" "Everything works together" "We understand workflow problems"
Fighting on experience + ecosystem.
What teams say vs what teams need
Say they want:
Better AI generation quality
More advanced features
Cutting-edge technology
Actually need:
Stop juggling 10 platforms
Stop learning new tools monthly
Stop paying $1,000+/month
Get work done efficiently
Canva's not building better AI. They're building better workflow.
Strategic competitive advantages
vs Adobe: $0 Affinity vs $70/month Creative Cloud
vs Figma: Already has integrated whiteboards (Figma paid $200M+ for Weavy to get this)
vs Runway/Krea: Good enough generation + complete ecosystem vs best-in-class + fragmentation
vs Everyone: Competes on workflow/cost/ease, not AI quality/features/specs. Different game entirely.
Why this threatens everyone
Adobe's nightmare: Free Affinity competes with Photoshop/Illustrator/InDesign
Figma's problem: Spent $200M acquiring Weavy, Canva already has workflows
Layer 1 tools: Why subscribe to 5 AI tools when Canva does it all?
CHAPTER 7: ADOBE PROJECT GRAPH - THE ENTERPRISE COUNTER-STRIKE
While Canva could dominate for the first time, Adobe showed their hand at MAX 2025. Project Graph could be the answer—if they execute.
What it is
Announced: October 28, 2025 (MAX Sneak) Beta: Private waitlist opened November 25, 2025 (launching early 2026) Key insight: MAX demo looked remarkably complete compared to the other Sneaks—Adobe is accelerating in response to Canva or to gen-AI as a whole?
Core concept: Node-based editor bringing ALL Adobe CC tools into unified workflows:
Photoshop functions as nodes
Illustrator tools as nodes
Premiere/After Effects as nodes
Third-party AI models (Google, OpenAI) as nodes...but are they 'commercially safe'?
Custom workflows packaged as "capsules"
Think: ComfyUI's power + Adobe's professional tools + cross-app integration
Adobe's unique advantages
Professional tools Canva can't match:
CMYK color workflows
Pantone color management
Print-ready PDF export
Professional typography
Precision vector tools
Advanced compositing
Complete creative ecosystem...but PLEASE include substance as part of Adobe CC. Otherwise I am sticking with Cinema 4D, sorry!
Enterprise ecosystem already in place:
GenStudio (content supply chain)
Firefly Foundry (custom brand models for Disney, Home Depot)
Project Moonlight (social analytics, limited beta)
If Adobe connects all these: GenStudio + Project Graph + Moonlight + Firefly Foundry = complete enterprise system.
The critical missing piece: Offline generation
Adobe opened the beta waitlist November 25. The announcement mentions node workflows, CC integration, capsules.
What's notably absent: Any mention of offline generation.
If Adobe's beta is cloud-only with credits, they're missing the strategic opportunity to differentiate from every platform (other than ComfyUI)
What could make Project Graph the enterprise winner: Optional offline AI generation—let studios use their own high spec hardware.
CHAPTER 8: THE UNIVERSAL ECONOMICS - WHY OFFLINE GENERATION MATTERS
This principle applies to every AI platform, not just Adobe:
The model that should exist
Tier 1: Platform Subscription ($10-99/month)
Pay for software, tools, workflow features
Fair - companies need revenue
Tier 2: Cloud Compute (Pay-per-use, optional)
For users with low-end hardware
For mobile/traveling work
For immediate access to newest models
Makes sense when you need it
Tier 3: Local Generation ($0-20/month licensing add-on in addition to the platform subscription)
Download models once
Run unlimited generations on YOUR hardware
Use YOUR electricity, YOUR GPU
Why pay per-generation when using YOUR resources?
Current reality (broken economics)
You buy a high spec Mac Studio or MacBook Pro Max:
24-core CPU
76-core GPU
192GB unified memory
Dedicated Neural Engine
Then platforms say: "That'll be $0.50 per generation, we'll use OUR servers."
This is absurd. It's like owning a $50,000 car but Uber charges you $5 every time you want to drive it.
Why this matters for studios
Hardware teams already own:
Mac Studio (M2 Max/Ultra)
MacBook Pro (M3 Max)
High-end PC workstations (NVIDIA RTX 4080/4090)
The credit trap:
You: "I have a $6,000 Mac"
Platform: "Cool. That'll be 500 credits per video."
You: "But my machine can generate locally—"
Platform: "Sorry, cloud only. Buy more credits."
Result: Your expensive hardware sits idle while you pay for someone else's server.
The environmental reality
Cloud generation:
Upload files (bandwidth)
Queue on server (data center energy)
Generate (cooling, electricity)
Download (bandwidth)
Multiply by every revision, every team member
Local generation:
Use hardware already running
M1/M2/M3 efficiency cores designed for this
Generate unlimited versions
Your Mac is already powered running Photoshop anyway
Real-world hardware data
I will probably get some heat from the anti-Apple pro-PC users. I have both setups. A £6,000 MacBook Pro (M3 Max) which actually matches or outperforms my £7,000 Alienware with RTX 3090 on most creative tasks—and it's only fractionally slower on 3D rendering while consuming a fraction of the power.
Most creative studios have transitioned to efficient Apple Silicon. These machines are incredibly capable for AI workloads while using far less power than gaming PCs.
What studios actually need
Render farm capability: Like Cinema 4D or After Effects render farms—dedicated desktop machines running generations overnight. Or shared resources during the day with limiters.
Example workflow: Studio has 3 Mac Studios running overnight generating 500 social post variations. Zero cloud costs. Zero credit anxiety. Just hardware you already own. Then during the day, the render farm will never use more than 50% of the available CPU/GPU or RAM, with the option for the user to remove their computer as a render clone.
This is how professional studios work. Platforms should enable it.
CHAPTER 9: COMPLIANCE NODES - THE FEATURE NOBODY'S BUILDING
This isn't "enterprise-only"—small studios working with global brands need this too, won't have access to Adobe Enterprise licenses.
Adobe's contradiction at MAX 2025
Repeated constantly: "Firefly is commercially safe!"
Also announced: Integrated OpenAI, Google models (ambiguous training data)
Studios are confused: "Wait, which parts are safe now?"
What Project Graph needs: Compliance nodes
1. IP Checker Node
Scan workflow for AI models with unclear training data
Flag potential IP risk before generation or even as a post generation audit
Recommend Firefly alternatives (commercially safe)
Simple traffic light color-coded risk: Green (safe) / Yellow (review) / Red (high risk) + explanation
2. Prompt compliance tracker for non-UK EU clients
Log all prompts used in workflow
Track which AI models generated which assets
Export audit trail for client legal teams
Timestamp and version control
3. Model provenance indicators
Visual badges on each node: "Firefly (commercially safe)" vs "OpenAI (check contract)"
Workflow-wide risk assessment
One-click compliance report export
Why every studio needs this
Scenario: You're a 5-person boutique agency. You land Nike as a client. They require IP indemnification. You can't afford $100k Enterprise contracts.
But you still need to prove your workflow is commercially safe or lose the job.
With compliance nodes:
Show workflow to Nike legal
All nodes color-coded (Green = Firefly, Yellow = needs review)
Export audit report: "Final assets 100% Firefly generation"
Win the contract with proof of compliance
Legal reality (December 2025)
EU AI Act: Requires transparency in AI-generated content
South Korea (July 2024 Plave case): AI avatars have legal identity, defamation protection applies to digital characters/performers
US clients: Increasingly require documentation of AI training data sources
Small studios get sued too - can't hide behind "we're not enterprise"
Without this: Studios either avoid Project Graph (too risky), only use parts of it (Firefly only) or use it blindly (risk)
With this: Studios confidently mix models based on project risk tolerance and client requirements
CHAPTER 10: WHAT THIS MEANS FOR CREATIVE TEAMS RIGHT NOW
Immediate actions (next 30 days)
1. Audit your current stack
How many AI platforms are you paying for? Ask your team as well, it is likely they are paying for platforms themselves and learning in their own time in fear of becoming obsolete.
Which ones overlap in functionality?
What's your monthly total cost?
Register with Adobe Project Graph beta
2. Test the Layer 2 leaders
Request Pletor beta access (marketing)
Trial Luvian.AI (unified suite)
Test new Canva + Affinity (it's FREE)
Evaluate Miro AI if you already use Miro
3. Document your Layer 2 needs
Brand guidelines enforcement
Campaign asset management
Client approval workflows
Team collaboration
Performance analytics
Print workflows (CMYK/Pantone)
IP indemnification
4. Prepare your consolidation case CFOs will ask: "Why do we need three platforms?" Have answers on workflow efficiency, risk reduction, team productivity, integration benefits.
Strategic decisions (3-6 months)
Option A: Bet on Canva (Safest)
Migrate to Canva + Affinity ecosystem now
Benefit: Shipping now, free tools, complete system
Risk: Professional features may not match Adobe depth
Option B: do nothing and wait for Adobe Project Graph (Riskiest as things are moving fast)
Maintain current Adobe CC + specialist tools
Benefit: IF Adobe adds offline generation, best professional tools
Risk: Canva captures market while you wait, no guarantees
Option C: Hybrid Approach (Practical)
Adopt Canva for 80% of work (social, digital, collaboration)
Keep Adobe for 20% (print, CMYK, complex compositing)
Add 1-2 specialists if needed (Recraft for brand, ComfyUI for power)
Benefit: Best of both worlds
Risk: Tool fragmentation, two subscriptions
Option D: Bet on Layer 2 Maturity
Wait for Pletor/Luvian to prove themselves
Revisit in Q2 2026
Benefit: Purpose-built for workflows
Risk: Small players, uncertain futures
What to avoid
❌ Don't adopt 5+ platforms (fragmentation kills productivity)
❌ Don't ignore print workflows (if you do print, Adobe or Affinity required)
❌ Don't skip legal review (IP indemnification matters)
❌ Don't chase features (workflow trumps generation quality)
The 12-month outlook
Q1 2026: Pletor/Luvian move from beta to general availability, Canva integration matures
Q2 2026: Layer 2 platforms add enterprise features, first major acquisitions
Q3-Q4 2026: Industry consolidation accelerates, 2-3 clear winners emerge
2027+: Layer 2 platforms dominate, Layer 1-only tools die or get acquired
Uncomfortable predictions
50% of platforms will be dead by 2028 (too many Layer 1 tools, no path to Layer 2)
Teams consolidate to 1-2 platforms maximum (budget + learning fatigue)
Canva could own SMB creative market (free tools + integrated AI + 200M users)
Adobe remains enterprise default and creative industry standard...but their throne is not as secure as it was (print + indemnification + professional features, but loses SMB)
ComfyUI becomes professional power tool, they do now offer a cloud-based service which negates the install headache...but also negates the benefit of offline working (like Blender for 3D—free, powerful, technical)
Google kills Mixboard (track record speaks for itself)
Ethics becomes differentiator (clear training data wins enterprise)
Print workflows remain unsolved (AI platforms won't add CMYK/Pantone, Adobe/Affinity maintain moat)
CONCLUSION
The current AI platform explosion is unsustainable. Creative teams can't afford, learn, or integrate 30+ tools. We need 2-3 platforms maximum. Maybe just one.
The winners will understand:
Workflow trumps generation quality
Brand consistency matters more than novel features
Team collaboration is non-negotiable
Business integration determines adoption
Ethical training and IP protection are table stakes
Right now, the Layer 2 leaders are:
Pletor (marketing workflows)
Luvian.AI (unified creative suite)
Canva + Affinity (all-in-one ecosystem)
Miro AI (collaboration infrastructure)
The Layer 1 survivors will be:
Adobe (enterprise + print)
ComfyUI (power users)
Figma Weave (what ever it will become)
Specialist best-in-class (Runway for video, Recraft for brand)
Everyone else is on borrowed time.
The race is on. Only a few will survive.
The question isn't which AI generates the best image. The question is which platform lets a team of five people manage 50 client campaigns across print and digital without losing their minds.
That platform wins.
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